IJSF Issue 5:3

Contents for IJSF Issue 5:3

Returns to Skill in Professional Golf: A Quantile Regression Approach, pp. 167-180
Authors: Leo H. Kahane
Abstract:There have been a host of empirical papers studying the returns to skill in professional golf (e.g., Alexander & Kern, 2005; Callan & Thomas, 2007; Moy & Liaw, 1998; Rishe, 2001; Shmanske, 1992, 2000, 2008). None of these studies, however, carefully considers the skewed distribution of earnings in professional golf. This paper uses quantile regression to better handle the skewness and outlier values found in PGA earnings data. Using data from the PGA for the years 2004 to 2007 results of quantile regressions show that the returns to skills—such as putting and driving accuracy—have a statistically different impact on earnings at different points on the conditional earnings distribution.

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Terror Alert Levels and Major League Baseball Attendance, pp. 181-192
Authors: David E. Kalist
Abstract:In the post-9/11 world, managers and owners of large public venues face new challenges. Since stadiums are potential targets of terrorist attacks, sports venues may experience falling ticket sales as the public becomes more concerned about the threat of terrorism. This paper estimates the risk to business disruptions by examining how baseball fans respond to increased terror-alert levels by the U.S. Homeland Security Advisory System. Using game-day attendance for each Major League Baseball team for the period 2002-03, the results indicate that during the early days of the nation’s first-ever increase in the terror-alert level (i.e., raised from yellow to orange) attendance decreased by as much as 12%. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that a team may have lost more than a half million dollars in attendance revenue. However, as found in the literature, subsequent increases in terror-alert levels appear to dull the public, since recent alerts no longer affect attendance.

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The Efficiency of ‘In-Play’ Australian Rules Football Betting Markets, pp. 193-207
Authors: Richard John Ryall and Anthony Bedford
Abstract:This paper examines the efficiency of the “in-play” Australian Rules football fixed odds betting market at quarter time, half time, and three quarter time. Tests of semi-strong efficiency are performed on the 2009 AFL season using logistic regression analysis. The results demonstrate that as the match progresses, there is a significant bias against the team that is currently leading—a bias that increases when the team that is leading is also the away-favorite. This bias is shown to yield significant profits utilizing simple betting strategies.

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Individual Tournament Incentives in a Team Setting: The 2008-09 NBA MVP Race, pp. 208-221
Authors: Andrew W. Nutting
Abstract:The 2008-09 NBA Most Valuable Player race is modeled as a tournament between LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Dwyane Wade. Estimations show that James and Bryant significantly increased their scoring in response to Wade scoring more points in his most recent game, and that James also increased his scoring in response to Bryant scoring more points in his most recent game. All significant increases in scoring in response to an MVP competitor’s play were correlated with more free throws taken, suggesting the competitors responded to another competitor’s improved performance with more aggressive offense. Evidence suggesting that individual tournament incentives increased MVP competitor’s team winning probability seems stronger than evidence suggesting it decreased win probability.

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Regional Determinants of Competitiveness: The Case of European Soccer Teams, pp. 222-234
Authors: Paulo Jorge Reis Mourão
Abstract:This paper investigates the statistical relationship between European regional development and the competitiveness of professional soccer teams. Using data on more than 140 European regions (NUT2) from the period 1990–2006, it concludes that professional soccer teams are more likely to show superior performance if their head offices are located in population-dense regions that have a high GDP and in highly urbanized areas.

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