IJSF Issue 3:1

Contents for IJSF Issue 3:1

Executive Interview, pp. 3-7
Authors: J. Andrew Choi
Abstract:An interview with David G. Brooks, General Manager of the Beijing Olympics for Coca-Cola China

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The Effects of Roster Turnover on Demand in the National Basketball Association, pp. 8-18
Authors: Alan L. Morse, Stephen L. Shapiro, Chad D. McEvoy, and Daniel A. Rascher
Abstract:The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of roster turnover on demand in the National Basketball Association (NBA) over a five-year period (2000–2005) and compare these results to previous research on turnover in Major League Baseball (MLB). A censored regression equation was developed to examine the relationship between roster turnover and season attendance, while controlling for other potentially confounding variables in the model. The censored regression model was used to account for the capacity constraints by forecasting the level of demand beyond capacity using information from the uncensored observations. The regression model was found to be significant with a log-likelihood statistic of 113.631. Previous attendance, current winning percentage, previous winning percentage, number of all-star players, local major sport competition, and team history were found to be significant predictors of attendance. However, the variables measuring the effects of roster turnover were not found to be significant. There were substantial differences in the effect of roster turnover on attendance in the NBA compared with MLB. In addition, these findings provide evidence for using censored regression when dealing with constrained variables. Sellouts in the NBA appear to have an effect on all of the variables in the demand model. Future research will need to be conducted to help sport managers understand the role of roster turnover in specific professional leagues and to better understand the importance of using a censored regression model.

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Organizational Forms in Professional Cycling: An Examination of the Efficiency of the UCI Pro Tour, pp. 19-41
Authors: Luca Rebeggiani and Davide Tondani
Abstract:This paper analyzes the changes induced by the newly introduced UCI Pro Tour on the behavior of racing teams. We develop an oligopolistic model starting from the well-known Cournot framework to analyze why the UCI Pro Tour fails to reach its primary aim, namely to increase overall competition among professional cycling teams. In particular we show that the pattern of non-competitive behavior displayed by race teams is the result of a poorly designed Pro Tour licensing assignment procedure. Empirical findings confirm that teams put forth low effort in a high percentage of tour events, reserving their greatest effort for races organized in their home countries. This less-than-optimal performance pattern is the result of an organizational design that focuses solely on financial requirements and does not include incentives related to race performance. The study concludes with the recommendation that the current “closed league” organizational structure be replaced with a relegation system.

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NASCAR as a Public Good, pp. 42-57
Authors: Dennis Coates and David Gearhart
Abstract:This paper looks for evidence that either a NASCAR track or NASCAR-sanctioned event influences the monthly rents on residential units. The evidence is mixed, varying with the treatment of housing units located in or out of central cities of standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs), as well as the manner in which missing housing and community characteristics are treated in the analysis. The results are reasonably clear that the presence of a track by itself has little effect, especially on housing units outside the central city of an SMSA. Specific types of races largely appear to have no impact, though in some specifications, the central city and non-central city impacts are about equal but have opposite signs. Overall, we must conclude that our results reject NASCAR as a source of either large benefits or costs to residents of the host community.

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The Interaction between Baseball Attendance and Winning Percentage: A VAR Analysis, pp. 58-73
Authors: Michael C. Davis
Abstract:This study examines the importance of team success for attendance for Major League Baseball teams. Winning and attendance go together for most baseball teams, but the direction of causation is not obvious. Winning could lead to greater attendance as fans want to see a winner; an increase in attendance could lead to greater winning as teams have greater resources to spend on salaries. This study finds that the direction of causation runs from team success to greater attendance, and that a sudden increase in fans does not lead to additional winning in the future. A secondary result suggests that exogenous shocks to attendance have replicating effects on attendance as well.

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Book Review: The Economics of Staging the Olympics: A Comparison of the Games 1972-2008, by Holger Preuss, pp. 74-76
Authors: Victor Matheson
Abstract:There is no bigger event in the world of sports than the quandrennial Summer Olympic Games. In recent years, the competition among cities to host the Games has been as vigorous as that among the athletes themselves. But why would a city wish to take on the financial burden and risk of hosting the Olympics? Holger Preuss takes the most comprehensive look to date at the economic, social, and political costs and benefits of hosting the Games in his book The Economics of Staging the Olympics: A Comparison of the Games 1972–2008.

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